Leaf area index uncertainty estimates for model–data fusion applications

Estimates of data uncertainties are required to integrate different observational data streams as model constraints using model–data fusion. We describe an approach with which random and systematic uncertainties in optical measurements of leaf area index [LAI] can be quantified. We use data from a measurement campaign at the spruce-dominated Howland Forest AmeriFlux site for illustrative purposes. We made measurements along two transects (one in a mature stand, one in a recently harvested shelterwood) before sunset on successive days using both the Li-Cor LAI-2000 plant canopy analyzer and digital hemispherical photography (DHP). The random measurement uncertainty (1σ) at a given point for a single measurement is about 5% for LAI-2000 and 10% for DHP. These uncertainties are small compared to potential systematic biases due to instrument calibration errors and data processing decisions, which are estimated to be 10–20% for each instrument. Sampling uncertainty (due to the spatial variability along each transect where we conducted our measurements) is an additional, but again relatively small, uncertainty. Assumptions about clumping parameters, for which standard literature values are typically used, remain large sources of uncertainty. This analysis can also be used to develop strategies to reduce measurement uncertainties.

► Estimates of data uncertainties are required for model–data fusion. ► We quantified uncertainties in optical measurements of leaf area index [LAI]. ► Random measurement errors are small compared to potential systematic biases. ► Systematic errors are potentially large but can be reduced with careful calibration.