Winter chilling trends for deciduous fruit trees in Australia

Deciduous fruit trees require exposure to cold winter temperatures to fulfil chilling requirements allowing production of normal harvests. Trends in chill accumulation over the last 100 years were investigated at a number of important horticultural locations in Australia. Historical analysis is a necessary first step when considering potential impacts of climate change. Chill was examined using four chill models; the 0–7.2 °C, Modified Utah, Positive Utah and Dynamic models. Differences between locations were found with notable recent declines at Orange, Lenswood, Tatura, Yarra Valley and Bacchus Marsh. Other locations have remained stable with no location exhibiting a consensus increase in chill across all models. Trends in chill were shown to differ between models with results indicating that the 0–7.2 °C model frequently behaved differently to the other three chill models. These results highlight the need for multi-model analysis for chill trends, especially in a climate change context, to avoid maladaptation.

► Winter chill was calculated at 13 locations using four chilling models. ► Chill trends using the 0–7.2 °C were frequently different to the other models. ► Winter chill trends differ between locations but generally stable conditions or declines were observed. ► Comparison of chill models important to avoid maladaptation to climate change.