Extrapolation of pre-screening trends: Impact of assumptions on overdiagnosis estimates by mammographic screening

The results of this theoretical study most likely cover the true overdiagnosis estimate, which is unknown, and may not necessarily represent the median overdiagnosis estimate. This study shows that overdiagnosis estimates heavily depend on the assumptions made in extrapolating the incidence in the pre-screening period, especially on the choice of the pre-screening period. These limitations should be acknowledged when adopting this approach to estimate overdiagnosis.