Subway Fire Cause Analysis Model Based on System Dynamics: A Preliminary Model Framework

This paper collects typical major subway fire cases in nearly 20 years. Through analysis of these cases, the causes of the fire accidents are summed up. And further the influence factors of these reasons are extracted, including four aspects namely equipment, human, environment and emergency management. On this basis, combined with the relevant principles of system dynamics, the influence of various factors on the happening, spreading and controlling of subway fires are considered. Then, a simulation model of subway fire accident rate is constructed by Vensim. The equations of relevant variables and parameters of the system are given preliminarily.