Major Production Accidents Interval Forecasting based on Gray Panel

Analysis of the existing accident forecasting methods finds that a large number of methods get deterministic forecasting results. In fact, the deterministic prediction results cannot include interference of future time for the system and influence of inner mechanism and structural change. While the gray interval forecast can meet this objective requirement. This paper proposes two interval predicted methods based on gray panel:the development belt and upper-lower limit line methods, change a deterministic value into interval predicted result. The two methods are applied to predict the death toll in serious accidents in a province from 2003 to 2012 .The case study demonstrates that the upper-lower limit line method is more accurate and suitable for accident prediction. It shortens gray panel greatly. Therefore, the method with the significant theoretical meaning and practical value is worth popularizing