Measurement of Selected Risks in the Construction Manufacturing Plant Using Statistical Method

Construction elements manufacturing plants functioning on the global market face different types of risks. It is necessary to consider and manage all of the risk occurrences in order to maintain a leading position in construction market, regardless of its influence on the manufacturing plant. Achieving this is possible, among other things, through the development of appropriate models including operating procedures [6,11], which are combined with each other chronologically. This paper presents procedure based on the measurement of selected risk occurrences related to manufacturing plant and within a usage of a statistical method. For this purpose, a specific manufacturing plant was used and survey-based research was carried out. The selected measurement method uses a probabilistic approach, including random variables and probability distributions, by which the risks occurring in the manufacturing plant can be described. The potential costs were assigned to each risk occurrence using the Delphi method and by consulting the experts in the field of prefabricated construction elements. In addition, 2 or 3 scenarios concerning minimum and maximum or minimum, average and maximum values of potential cost associated with each risk occurrence, have been developed. As a result, it was possible to estimate the total value of risk occurrences in the manufacturing plant and present it in the form of a probability density function. For this purpose, the Central Limit Theorem was used. The summary of the paper contains the further information related to determination of correlation coefficient between risk occurrences.