Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
860934 | Procedia Engineering | 2012 | 5 Pages |
Abstract
Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Engineering
Engineering (General)