Calculation of Failure Probability of Hydraulic Structures for Rural Hydropower

The failure probability is one of the two elements of risk; the correct calculation of failure probability is a premise that risk management of Rural Hydropower is implemented in China. The operational status of hydraulic structures for Rural Hydropower was firstly evaluated comprehensively; then the correlation between operational status and failure probability of hydraulic structures was used to complete a calculation of failure probability. Indices which are closely related to behaviour of hydraulic structure for Rural Hydropower were selected to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system; and the operational status of hydraulic structures was evaluated by using linear weighted comprehensive evaluation model.