Application of Bayesian Approach in Back Analysis of the Break Rate of Overtopped Earth-rock Cofferdam

The uncertain influential factors of the accident rate of overtopped earth-rock cofferdam are extremely complicated, especially the time variability property of engineering aging, which can greatly change the random behavior of. Bayes approach was applied to analyze the random behavior of, and the break rate of overtopped earth-rock cofferdam was predicted by parameter back analysis in this paper. Based on the hypothesis of Bernoulli model and concept of equivalent samples, the prior information of accident rate may be regarded as the sample information obtained from engineering practice. Its distribution accords with that of Beta conjugate function. By this method, the computation of the posterior distribution of accident rate can be simplified.