Real-time quantification of the next-generation matrix and age-dependent forecasting of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Japan

To forecast the age-dependent cumulative incidence reliably following the estimation of the NGM and reporting coverage, we need empirically observed data for more than 5 months from the start of the epidemic, which is likely to be after the peak. To increase the practical efficacy in forecasting the cumulative incidence, additional data and approaches are required.