Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

PurposeTwo competing theories explain the link between past and future criminal behavior: population heterogeneity and state dependence. Actuarial models of risk prediction emphasize static variables, akin to population heterogeneity. State dependence, has never been tested with similar populations.MethodsUsing survival modeling this study examines both population heterogeneity and state dependence using a sample of adult sex offenders incarcerated in Quebec, Canada from 1994–2000. Analyses were conducted on offenders age 36 and over (n = 242). Official criminal activity was measured at: (a) 18–23 years; (b) 24–29 years; (c) 30–35 years; and, (d) 36 + years.ResultsCox proportional hazards modeling shows stronger evidence for state dependence, suggesting changeability in risk over time.ConclusionsSupport was found for both offending continuity and discontinuity, or a mixed model of offending. Current actuarial risk assessment tools for adult sex offenders do not accommodate for the inclusion of state dependent and life-course processes, which could have implications for the potential overestimation of offender risk.

► Population heterogeneity and state dependent models were explored with sex offenders ► Prior offending in early adulthood loses its predictive value with the passage of time ► Most recent offenses in the period considered were most predictive of recidivism ► Offender age at release and educational achievement were associated with recidivism ► Risk assessment should consider both the age and the passage of time to assess risk of reoffending