Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
8862876 | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies | 2018 | 17 Pages |
Abstract
The analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index showed few droughts in the period 1960-1970, whereas in the 1990s a multi-year drought occurred with SPIs as low as â2 (extremely dry) in many subbasins. The Markov chain analysis learnt that the probability of having two consecutive drought years appears to be higher in the southern subbasins. The Drought Index derived from transition probabilities indicates that the southern and the southwestern parts of the Chéliff-Zahrez basin are most drought prone. Time series modelling was applied to compute the SPI for different return periods (6â17 years). Eleven models were tested and it appeared that the Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (APARCH) approach was best performing based on several information criteria. For a return period of 17 years, the SPI is lower than â1.5 (severely dry) in many subbasins.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Earth-Surface Processes
Authors
Brahim Habibi, Mohamed Meddi, Paul J.J.F. Torfs, Mohamed Remaoun, Henny A.J. Van Lanen,