Multi-site Modeling and Simulation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Jordan

Simulation experiments with the CARMA (1,1) model reveal that the model performed well in fitting the SPI-12 data. The model was also capable of preserving the cross correlation structure of the observed SPI-12 between the studied sites. Shorter time scale SPI's (such as the 1 and 3 months) were not used due to the fact that Jordan is an arid country and the reliability of SPI's is questionable at the shorter time scales. These results would be important and beneficial in regional studies of water resources in Jordan such as investigating droughts on a regional level rather than on a single site. Also, the results of this study would be important and beneficial for rural areas where no observed data exists.