Comparative evaluation of the effects of climate and land-cover changes on hydrologic responses of the Muskeg River, Alberta, Canada

Analysis of the relative contribution of inter-annual climate variability and land-cover change to the historical streamflow demonstrates the necessity to consider both in evaluating future water availability in the basin. Results indicate that modification to evapotranspiration rates caused from land-cover change affect spring and summer flows. Wetter and warmer conditions in the projected climate are found to increase spring and winter streamflows. Sensitivity analysis of the hydrologic indicators computed from the simulated flows shows that land-cover change may play a larger role in affecting the hydrologic regime than climate change, except that of spring runoff.