An empirical model to quantify fecal bacterial loadings to coastal areas: Application in a Mediterranean context

In coastal catchments, rainfall events primarily drive bacterial inputs to the sea by causing land runoff, surface leaching and sewer overflow. Under semi-arid climate, extensive dry periods are interspersed with extreme precipitation. This paper aims to assess the impact of intense summer rainstorms events on Fecal Indicator Bacteria loadings to Mediterranean seawaters. Firstly, explanatory relationships were derived between an Antecedent Precipitation Index and the loads of thermo-tolerant coliforms and intestinal enterococci measured at three catchment outlets in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (southern France). Secondly, fecal bacterial loadings were simulated during summer season from 2006-2016, with a confidence interval arising from measurements uncertainties. On average, more than two rainstorms per summer season elevate bacterial loads at least by one order of magnitude, potentially leading to the degradation of bathing and fishing water quality observed in regulatory monitoring data. The results highlight the crucial importance of considering hydrological conditions in coastal water quality management.