Trophic cascades of bottom-up and top-down forcing on nutrients and plankton in the Kattegat, evaluated by modelling

The aim of the study was to investigate the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down forcing on trophic cascades in the pelagic food-web and the implications for water quality indicators (summer phytoplankton biomass and winter nutrients) in relation to management. The 3D ecological model ERGOM was validated and applied in a local set-up of the Kattegat, Denmark, using the off-line Flexsem framework. The model scenarios were conducted by changing the forcing by ± 20% of nutrient inputs (bottom-up) and mesozooplankton mortality (top-down), and both types of forcing combined. The model results showed that cascading effects operated differently depending on the forcing type. In the single-forcing bottom-up scenarios, the cascade directions were in the same direction as the forcing. For scenarios involving top-down, there was a skipped-level-transmission in the trophic responses that was either attenuated or amplified at different trophic levels. On a seasonal scale, bottom-up forcing showed strongest response during winter-spring for DIN and Chl a concentrations, whereas top-down forcing had the highest cascade strength during summer for Chl a concentrations and microzooplankton biomass. On annual basis, the system was more bottom-up than top-down controlled. Microzooplankton was found to play an important role in the pelagic food web as mediator of nutrient and energy fluxes. This study demonstrated that the best scenario for improved water quality was a combined reduction in nutrient input and mesozooplankton mortality calling for the need of an integrated management of marine areas exploited by human activities.