Unraveling the intricate dynamics of planktonic Arctic marine food webs. A sensitivity analysis of a well-documented food web model

The extreme and variable environment shapes the functioning of Arctic ecosystems and the life cycles of its species. This delicate balance is now threatened by the unprecedented pace and magnitude of global climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Understanding the long-term consequences of these changes remains an elusive, yet pressing, goal. Our work was specifically aimed at identifying which biological processes impact Arctic planktonic ecosystem functioning, and how. Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indices reveal emergent ecosystem properties that are not accessible through simple in situ observation. These indices are based on the architecture of carbon flows within food webs. But, despite the recent increase in in situ measurements from Arctic seas, many flow values remain unknown. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) allows missing flow values to be estimated from existing flow observations and, subsequent reconstruction of ecosystem food webs. Through a sensitivity analysis on a LIM model of the Amundsen Gulf in the Canadian Arctic, we were able to determine which processes affected the emergent properties of the planktonic ecosystem. The analysis highlighted the importance of an accurate knowledge of the various processes controlling bacterial production (e.g. bacterial growth efficiency and viral lysis). More importantly, a change in the fate of the microzooplankton within the food web can be monitored through the trophic level of mesozooplankton. It can be used as a “canary in the coal mine” signal, a forewarner of larger ecosystem change.