Long-term forecast method for ice disasters on power grids

Ice disaster is a common form of natural disaster that threatens the safe operation of power grids. Long-term forecasting of power grid icing can provide valuable time for early deployment of power grid anti-icing measures, significantly reducing losses from power grid ice disasters. By analyzing the physical and quantitative relationships between power grid icing and multiple factors such as sunspots, atmospheric circulation, air temperature, and precipitation, the authors have proposed a novel analytic method based on key factors for long-term icing forecasting for power grids. In addition, a fuzzy membership-based forecasting model has been constructed to forecast the long-term icing degree of power grids. Example calculation results using the proposed models show that these models provides accurate forecasts of long-term grid icing degree, which demonstrates the effectiveness and practical usefulness of the proposed models.