Evolution of the Yellow River delta, China: Impacts of channel avulsion and progradation

The evolution of the Yellow River delta is characterized by heavy sediment load, rapid seaward migration, frequent avulsions, and intense anthropogenic disturbances. Evolution of the delta channel following avulsions is very complex and has not yet been thoroughly understood. In the research presented by this paper, we conducted comprehensive analyses of the changes in the water stages, slopes, longitudinal profiles, and the erosion and deposition in the Yellow River delta channels during a time period of over five decades. Results showed that, following each avulsion, channels migrated seaward at decaying rates and the slopes at the downstream of the avulsion point decreased exponentially with time and completed its major adjustment within about four to five years. A generalized geometric model was proposed to describe the changes in the longitudinal profiles of the delta channels. A calculation method to determine the characteristic water stages at the delta was proposed based on the geometric model and the delayed response model for the morphological responses of fluvial rivers to perturbations. Water stages corresponding to a discharge of 3000 m3/s at Lijin and Xihekou during 1954 through 2012 were calculated by using the proposed method. The proposed method may be used to predict the evolution of the delta channels in response to artificial avulsions at the Yellow River delta in the future.