Prediction of shale prospectivity from seismically-derived reservoir and completion qualities: Application to a shale-gas field, Horn River Basin, Canada

Prospective shale plays require a combination of good reservoir and completion qualities. Total organic carbon (TOC) is an important reservoir quality and brittleness is the most critical condition for completion quality. We analyzed seismically-derived brittleness and TOC to investigate the prospectivity of the Horn River Group shale (the Muskwa, Otter Park, Evie shales) of a shale-gas field in the western Horn River Basin, British Columbia, Canada. We used the λρ-μρ brittleness template, constructed from the mineralogy-based brittleness index (MBI) and elastic logs from two wells, to convert the λρ and μρ volumes from prestack seismic inversion to the volume for the brittleness petrotypes (most brittle, intermediate, and least brittle). The probability maps of the most brittle petrotype for the three shales were generated from Bayesian classification, based on the λρ-μρ template. The relationship between TOC and P-wave and S-wave velocity ratio (VP/VS) at the wells allowed the conversion of the VP/VS volume from prestack inversion to the TOC volume, which in turn was used to construct the TOC maps for the three shales. Increased TOC is correlated with high brittleness, contrasting with the commonly-held understanding. Therefore, the prospectivity of the shales in the study area can be represented by high brittleness and increased TOC. We propose a shale prospectivity index (SPI), computed by the arithmetic average of the normalized probability of the most brittle petrotype and the normalized TOC. The higher SPI corresponds to higher production rates in the Muskwa and Evie shales. The areas of the highest SPI have not been fully tested. The future drilling should be focused on these areas to increase the economic viability of the field.