Foresight methods for multilateral collaboration in space situational awareness (SSA) policy & operations

Our orbital environment is undergoing profound changes characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and complexity. At the same time, the governance of the global domain of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is undergoing a transformation itself, as it evolves from the paradigm of traditional single state-actor efforts to multilateral collaborations. This paper offers a theoretical perspective to adapting to external and internal changes through foresight. Drawing on contemporary safety approaches to resilience and reliability, it highlights three qualitative methods at various levels of depth: horizon scanning, scenario building, and live simulation. In considering the merits of foresight activities as vehicle for transparency and confidence building, as forum for reflection across multiple actors, and for the reconciliation of divergent stakeholder interests, it makes the case for concerted foresight efforts as indispensable measure to explore, understand and respond to incremental and disruptive change.