Effect of large constellations on lifetime of satellites in low earth orbits

Primary results are that satellites being disposed from or added to the new constellations and debris associated with collisions involving these objects could potentially double the reduction in the mean operational lifetime of satellites operating in LEO. As in the 2010 study, the degradation of solar panels due to small debris impacts is a significant factor in this degradation, with the mean lifetime reduction increasing from the 13% predicted in the earlier study to as much as 60% in some cases (i.e., a large satellite with a mean lifetime of 20 years in a no-debris environment could have its mean lifetime reduced by as much as 12 years). Results suggest that minimizing collisions during replenishment activities and making solar panels and space hardware more resilient to small debris impacts will be increasingly important in the future.