Quantifying the supply chain for Near Eastern Antiquities in times of war and conflict

This paper provides the first systematic analysis of a particular norm at major antiquities auctions: selling items in groups. The analysis decomposes large auction lots of Near Eastern antiquities into their constituent items and examines the provenance of items individually. This provides insight into the known supply chain, or provenance, for thousands of items from a region in which archaeological looting has become a particular concern. The analysis shows that items sold in groups constitute a large source of revenue on the market, but are small and come with poor documentation, making them problematic in several ways. A variety of additional analyses show that the market does not price provenance in a way that generates incentives to improve these problematic aspects of the trade. The paper contributes to the understanding of the end market for Middle Eastern cultural heritage, and concludes with implications for public policy, law, and heritage preservation.