Family smoking history moderates the effect of expectancies on smoking initiation in college students

•Family smoking history (FH) moderated effect of negative expectancies on initiation.•Negative expectancies were protective vs. initiation if FH was positive.•Positive expectancies predicted initiation but unrelated to FH in college students.

AimsThis report was designed to test the hypothesis that family history of smoking (FH) would moderate the effects of positive and negative smoking expectancies on initiation in a college sample.DesignSecondary analysis of a study of college freshmen never-smokers (n = 196; 46% male) who completed a baseline interview and quarterly online follow-up assessments for 15 months.FindingsAnalyses indicated that FH moderated the effect of negative outcome expectancies (p = .003) but not the effects of expectancies for positive or negative reinforcement on the probability of smoking initiation. Stronger negative expectancies were associated with a decreased risk of initiation for family history positive but not family history negative participants.ConclusionsFindings are consistent with previous tobacco research indicating that FH + adolescents have more negative expectancies about cigarette smoking. This suggests that adolescents observing negative consequences or receiving negative messages from their parents about cigarettes may be less likely to experiment with smoking.