Prospective Identification of Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Women at High Vertebral Fracture Risk by Radiography, Bone Densitometry, Quantitative Ultrasound, and Laboratory Findings

Prevalent fractures turned out to be the strongest predictor of subsequent vertebral fractures with an age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 3.9 per prevalent fracture over 2 yr. Furthermore, our results underline the predictive power of spinal BMD (sOR = 2.1; standardized OR per 1 standard deviation population variance decrease), whole body BMD (sOR: 2.4), and QUS stiffness index of the calcaneus (sOR: 2.8) for vertebral fracture prediction. QUS of the patella did not predict vertebral fractures. Blood sedimentation rate was predictive in the first year (sOR: 1.9). The predictive power of bone turnover markers, however, appeared to be too low to be detectable in a group of this sample size and it may have been reduced because most women were already receiving treatment. In conclusion, radiographic measures, but not the tested laboratory bone turnover markers, enabled us to identify women (from a population of osteoporotic women who have been treated for some time with a variety of medications) who are at highest risk for developing new vertebral fractures within 1-2 yr.