Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
956869 | Journal of Economic Theory | 2010 | 15 Pages |
Abstract
We study the problem of testing an expert whose theory has a learnable and predictive parametric representation, as do standard processes used in statistics. We design a test in which the expert is required to submit a date T by which he will have learned enough to deliver a sharp, testable prediction about future frequencies. We show that this test passes an expert who knows the data-generating process and cannot be manipulated by a uninformed one. Such a test is not possible if the theory is unrestricted.
Keywords
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Economics and Econometrics
Authors
Nabil I. Al-Najjar, Alvaro Sandroni, Rann Smorodinsky, Jonathan Weinstein,