Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
956869 Journal of Economic Theory 2010 15 Pages PDF
Abstract

We study the problem of testing an expert whose theory has a learnable and predictive parametric representation, as do standard processes used in statistics. We design a test in which the expert is required to submit a date T by which he will have learned enough to deliver a sharp, testable prediction about future frequencies. We show that this test passes an expert who knows the data-generating process and cannot be manipulated by a uninformed one. Such a test is not possible if the theory is unrestricted.

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Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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