Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
957716 Journal of Economic Theory 2007 20 Pages PDF
Abstract

It is often argued that changes in expectation are an important driving force of the business cycle. However, it is well known that changes in expectations cannot generate positive co-movement between consumption, investment and employment in the most standard neo-classical business cycle models. This gives rise to the question of whether changes in expectation can cause business cycle fluctuations in any neo-classical setting or whether such a phenomenon is inherently related to market imperfections. This paper offers a systematic exploration of this issue. Our finding is that expectation driven business cycle fluctuations can arise in neo-classical models when one allows for a sufficiently rich description of the production technology; however, such a structure is rarely allowed or explored in macro-models. In particular, we identify a multi-sector setting and a setting with a costly distribution system in which expectation driven business cycles can arise.

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Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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