Nonlinearity and smoothing in venture capital performance data

Performance indices for illiquid investments are known to suffer from returns smoothing, and the purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence and nature of such smoothing in the context of venture capital. We find that while the standard techniques may or may not indicate the presence of smoothing, significant evidence of smoothing exists when a nonlinear regime-dependent model is specified. Further, the model suggests the presence of regime-specific responsiveness of venture capital returns whereby different weights are placed on newly arrived information in different regimes.

► We investigate the nature of smoothing in returns on venture capital. ► Standard techniques may not indicate the presence of such smoothing. ► A nonlinear regime dependent model reveals significant evidence of smoothing. ► The model also detects regime-specific responsiveness of returns to newly arrived information.