How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

The accuracy of property values estimated by homeowners is an open empirical question that requires an evaluation of the reported values using a market assessment. Using information on selling prices from the Health and Retirement Study and the American Housing Survey, and after accounting for possible measurement error in reporting and selection regarding those who we observe selling, we find evidence that homeowners overestimate the value of their properties by around 8% with an estimated range between 3.4% and 12.7% (95% CI).