Racial differences in mortgage denials over the housing cycle: Evidence from U.S. metropolitan areas

The cyclical movement of housing prices likely affects the supply of and demand for credit for home purchases, but little is known about how this process might influence differential access to credit between minority and non-minority borrowers. This paper uses data reported through the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) over the period 1990-2013 to estimate the relationship between annual metropolitan area-level house price inflation and the extent to which Black borrowers are denied relative to 'comparable' White borrowers on their loan applications. The results indicate that, on average, Black borrowers are denied more frequently than White borrowers, but this difference in denial rates decreases significantly as house prices rise more rapidly. Such results demonstrate the importance of considering local housing market conditions when using HMDA data to assess lender compliance with fair lending laws.