| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 962621 | Journal of International Economics | 2012 | 16 Pages |
Abstract
⺠Warning indicators from previous crises also predicted vulnerability in 2008-09. ⺠Strongest predictor, by 6 definitions of crisis severity: International reserves. ⺠Real exchange rate measures are the second strongest indicator of vulnerability. ⺠Others: credit growth, current account, saving rate, external and short-term debt. ⺠The global financial shock is defined as running from late 2008 to early 2009.
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Authors
Jeffrey Frankel, George Saravelos,