Value and liquidity under changing market conditions

Papers studying the liquidity of a market tend to focus on decisions involving the trade-off between the selling price and the time-till-sale for a given set of market conditions. This paper characterizes market conditions using a price-probability locus; a change in market conditions is some combination of changes in the level and/or slope of this locus. I show how the effect of either type of change on price and on the probability-of-sale can be decomposed into those commonly associated with an increase in the value and those which involve a substitution between price and probability. Two adding-up conditions restrict the set of possible predictions. Though the discussion focusses on real estate market, where scarcity is rationed by a mechanism which combines search and bargaining, the same ideas apply to markets with other types of selling mechanisms.