Policy coordination and risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies

This study investigates cointegration, policy coordination and the risk premium in foreign exchange markets for major EU currencies since the inception of the EMU in January 1999. The results show that only the krone and the pound are cointegrated with the euro. Tests of inflation convergence and analyses of reduced-form and structural VARs indicate that the cointegration evidence reflects the relatively stronger degree of monetary policy coordination and at least the de facto fixed exchange rate regime of Denmark and the U.K. with the EMU. Additionally, cointegration of spot exchange rates can be considered one of the factors that represent the time-varying risk premium due to its explanatory power for the return to forward speculation.