Analysing project cost overruns: comparing the “measured mile” analysis and system dynamics modelling

The forensic analysis of failed projects is often intended to identify specific reasons and allocate blame for significant cost overruns. In claim circumstances two approaches are often used: the “measured mile”, and system dynamics simulation modelling. This note compares these approaches and argues that, although it is the most popular approach in litigation, the measured mile method is unreliable in cases where disruptions and delays are a significant part of the explanation for additional costs and late delivery of a project.