Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: Evidence from the EU

This paper assesses the importance given in capital markets to the credibility of the European fiscal framework. We evaluate to which extent relevant fiscal policy events taking place in 2002 produced a reaction in the long-term bond segment of European capital markets. Firstly, we identify the relevant fiscal policy events. Secondly, we estimate the impact of these fiscal events on interest rate swap spreads in 13 EU member states. According to our results the reaction of swap spreads, when significant, has been mostly around five basis points or less.