Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
965019 | Journal of the Japanese and International Economies | 2010 | 14 Pages |
Abstract
We use the foreign exchange forecasts of the Wall Street Journal poll to analyze forecasters' expectation formation process for the yen against the US dollar for the period 1989-2007. We also contrast the expectation formation process with the actual exchange rate process. We find that most forecasters have contrarian and stabilizing exchange rate expectations. Our results also indicate significant heterogeneity between forecasters. However, forecasters on average underestimate the degree of contrarian and stabilizing behavior.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Economics and Econometrics
Authors
Jan C. Ruelke, Michael R. Frenkel, Georg Stadtmann,