Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
965019 Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 2010 14 Pages PDF
Abstract
We use the foreign exchange forecasts of the Wall Street Journal poll to analyze forecasters' expectation formation process for the yen against the US dollar for the period 1989-2007. We also contrast the expectation formation process with the actual exchange rate process. We find that most forecasters have contrarian and stabilizing exchange rate expectations. Our results also indicate significant heterogeneity between forecasters. However, forecasters on average underestimate the degree of contrarian and stabilizing behavior.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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