Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
965027 Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 2010 16 Pages PDF
Abstract
Using a VAR model that includes survey data on households' inflation expectations for Japan and the US, we investigate their determinants and influences on the economy and compare their properties in two countries. Short-term non-recursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous co-dependence between realized and expected inflation. We find that responding to changes in exogenous prices and to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. Compared with Japan, the effects of exogenous prices on inflation and inflation expectations in the US are not only large but also long lasting and shocks to expectations have self-fulfilling effects on inflation.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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