| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 965772 | Journal of Macroeconomics | 2015 | 10 Pages |
Abstract
The model predicts out-of-sample whether an NBER-defined peak or trough will occur within the next half-year. It yields a 100% proportion of correct recursive forecasts from 1970 to 2015. All the necessary data are readily available in un-revised form.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Economics and Econometrics
Authors
Rolando F. Peláez,