Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
965871 Journal of Macroeconomics 2010 6 Pages PDF
Abstract
This paper uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by US monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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