Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation

► Inflation and inflation expectations are governed by persistent trend shifts and time-varying uncertainty about trend inflation. ► I provide evidence that a simple trend learning model provides a good fit for expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. ► When estimating the forecast rule derived from the model, it turns out that private agents adapt their estimate of trend inflation when systematic forecast errors occur. ► Survey participants systematically alter the learning scheme when trend uncertainty changes.