Consequence and likelihood in risk estimation: A matter of balance in UK health and safety risk assessment practice

This paper argues that existing semi-quantitative risk estimation methodologies commonly applied within UK health and safety risk assessment practice are biased towards considerations of possible consequence rather than overall risk. This is seen to be leading to a slow shift towards risk aversion within UK health and safety decision making. A reworking of existing risk estimation methodology is proposed. Instead of seeking an explicit value for the level of risk the paper suggests that in lower risk industrial and commercial sectors it is sufficient to establish whether the risk is likely to fall within an intolerable, tolerable or acceptable risk zone. Once this evaluation has been completed it is further argued that risks judged to fall within the tolerable zone, which equates to a legal duty to reduce risk so far as reasonably practicable in UK, can be prioritised using values of exposure to the hazard. The method is seen as having significant advantages over other semi-quantitative risk estimation approaches presently used in UK.