| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 969047 | Journal of Public Economics | 2011 | 14 Pages |
Abstract
⺠Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate ex post how predictable an event was. ⺠In our political-agency model voters are hindsight-biased and politicians rational. ⺠Low-ability politicians sometimes gamble on inefficient policies to look smart. ⺠Hindsight bias can reduce policy gambles and can therefore be welfare enhancing.
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Economics and Econometrics
Authors
Florian Schuett, Alexander K. Wagner,