Integration of tradable green certificate markets: What can be expected?

Recently, many countries have introduced systems of tradable green certificates (TGCs) in order to increase the proportion of their electricity supply obtained from renewable sources. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the analytics of a TGC system of the Nordic type when integrated within several countries and to determine what can be expected from the system when applied in a real world setting. Both an analytical and a partial equilibrium version of the model are applied. In particular, we ask whether it is possible to derive analytically clear-cut results with respect to how the system affects generation of electricity from renewable resources, and from carbon emitting resources, in the same way as it is possible for other known policy instruments such as an emission permit system or a plain carbon emission tax. A key result is that TGCs may be an imprecise instrument for regulating the generation of green electricity and that the combination of TGCs with a system of tradable emission permits may yield outcomes contrary to the intended purpose.