The preponderant causes of the USA banking crisis 2007–08

Scientific research on the banking crisis 2007–08 has answered many important questions according to generally accepted methodological standards. However, there remains at least one outstanding question that has not been answered with methodological accuracy: What caused the severe USA banking crisis 2007–08? To address this question the paper uses a counterfactual definition of ‘cause,’ distinguishes between separable and non-separable causes, and employs a well-posed methodology for the causation analysis of singular events. In addition, first causes and preponderant causes are distinguished. The main result of this paper is that the preponderant causes of the banking crisis 2007–08 were securitization and ignorance.

► A singular event is a dated and non-replicable phenomenon at a particular location. ► The USA banking crisis 2007–08 was a singular event. ► A counterfactual methodology is required for causation analysis of singular events. ► We use a model of shadow banking to carry out a proof of causality. ► Securitization and ignorance were the preponderant causes of the banking crisis.