Crises, reforms, and regime persistence in sub-Saharan Africa

African countries have experienced pervasive rent-seeking and repeated coups d'etat. I model these features to show how rent-reducing economic reforms deter coups and allow regime persistence. An incumbent ruler may choose to risk an attempted coup in the hope of surviving and obtaining high future rents. A permanent crisis that reduces future rents may be necessary for reforms, particularly if the regime is limited in its ability to credibly implement reforms. The model yields insights into the incidence of political instability and reforms in sub-Saharan African. The Ghanaian and Nigerian experiences are used as examples.