Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
9727931 | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications | 2005 | 5 Pages |
Abstract
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time Ï0. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time Ï^(Ï0) between two events increases monotonically with Ï0. For Ï0 well below the average recurrence time ϯ,Ï^(Ï0) is smaller than ϯ, while for Ï0>ϯ, Ï^(Ï0) is greater than ϯ. Also, the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on Ï0. The larger Ï0 is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Mathematics
Mathematical Physics
Authors
V. Livina, S. Tuzov, S. Havlin, A. Bunde,