A Multi-state model of state dependence in labor supply: Intertemporal labor supply effects of a shift from joint to individual taxation

In this paper I develop an intertemporal discrete choice model of female labor supply to analyze the effects of true state dependence and its effect on labor supply behavior over time. The estimation results show that state dependence is significantly positive at the extensive margin and lower but in general still significant at the intensive margin. I apply this model to study the short and long run labor supply effects of a fundamental reform of the German income tax system, i.e. the shift from joint to individual taxation of married couples and show that labor supply responses are significantly higher in the long run than in the short run.