Assessing the effects of U.S. shocks on the Canadian economy using alternative identification methods

This paper investigates the extent of the transmission of U.S. supply and demand shocks to the Canadian economy using three different identification methods. Our findings are robust across identifications. We show that over the flexible exchange rate period, U.S. shocks tend to intensify Canadian business cycles, while they reduce the mean of Canadian prices and inflation. We also find that overall Canadian output is less sensitive to U.S. disturbances than found in earlier studies. Moreover, when the structural shocks are allowed to be correlated across countries, Canadian shocks explain around 18% of U.S. real GDP growth long run forecast error variance.