Productivity effects on Mexican manufacturing employment

We examine the effects of labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) on employment across 25 Mexican manufacturing industries from 1984 to 2000. Employing panel data methods, several interesting findings emerge. First, we observe a strong and positive impact of NAFTA on employment. Second, productivity exerts a procyclical, positive effect on employment but this effect becomes smaller after NAFTA. Third, partitions of our sample according to capital-labor intensity suggest that industries which are less capital-intensive were affected negatively on impact by NAFTA but that productivity impacted employment positively after NAFTA. In contrast, more capital-intensive industries display these results in reverse.