Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
974984 The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 2014 10 Pages PDF
Abstract

•The estimation of VAR model shows that the stock market returns lead high-yield bond returns, but not vice versa.•This lead–lag relationship is more solid during bear market periods.•Out-of-sample forecast shows that high-yield bond returns are better predicted by a VAR model during bear market periods, but such is not the case during non-bear market periods.•The predictability of high-yield bonds is asymmetric.

This study examines the relationship between the high-yield bonds market and the stock market and indicates that stock returns lead high-yield bond returns. Specifically, this study further shows that this lead–lag relationship is more solid during bear market periods since a downward trend in the stock market implies a high likelihood of the exercise of the equity put in short position embedded in a high-yield bond at maturity. We also conducted out-of-sample forecast using a VAR model, an AR model and naïve estimation during bear market and non-bear market periods. Our results demonstrate that high-yield bond returns are better predicted by a VAR model that includes past stock returns than by an AR model or naive estimation during bear market periods, but such is not the case during non-bear market periods.

Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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